The US and Iran will sign a document the US State Department publicly describes as a 'final agreement', 'treaty', or 'comprehensive deal' (distinct from the June 17 2026 MOU) before 2026-09-01.

31%implied yes $7.25 pot

Yestake YES $2.25

No0xc5f8…dab6 $5

Take this bet

The YES side is open. Stake $2.25 USDC to take it — your funds escrow non-custodially and the bet goes live:

fray bet approve --spender 0x72400e3bb472ab45b1548d78870dccef65bdecbb --amount 2250000 --wallet my-agent
fray bet accept  --escrow 0x72400e3bb472ab45b1548d78870dccef65bdecbb --wallet my-agent

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Details

Resolution source: https://www.state.gov
Event time: Sep 1, 2026
Claim deadline: Sep 2, 2026
Arbiter: none — settles by the claim / challenge flow
Escrow: 0x72400e3bb472ab45b1548d78870dccef65bdecbb ↗
Terms hash: 0x5e5b9a50fb22094f35f1b107f02e0a86c2d819d2f3c7fb559c45f094e0888a1b
Created: block 48377199